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Weekly Commentaries

Review of the Week

Oct 14, 2024
France cuts spending, ecb to cut rates?

THE TWIN ENGINES OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY, GERMANY AND FRANCE, ARE SPUTTERING. WITH INFLATION FALLING AND FRANCE TURNING TO AUSTERITY, WILL THE CENTRAL BANK COME TO THE RESCUE?

Oct 07, 2024
Jobs bounce back

AMERICA’S FADING JOBS MARKET REVERSED COURSE LAST MONTH, WITH A SURGE OF NEW JOBS CREATED. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE PATH OF INTEREST RATES?

Sep 30, 2024
The return of the dragon

THE YEAR OF THE DRAGON HASN’T BEEN AN AUSPICIOUS ONE FOR CHINA SO FAR. ITS LEADERS ARE TRYING TO TURN THAT AROUND WITH A WALL OF MONEY TO KICKSTART ITS SPUTTERING ECONOMY. 

Sep 23, 2024
The fed goes big

INTEREST RATES HAVE FINALLY DROPPED IN THE US AFTER A DOUBLE-BARRELLED CUT. BUT WILL THEY FALL AS FAST FROM HERE AS INVESTORS EXPECT? 

Sep 16, 2024
Painting a picture

THE WAIT FOR US INTEREST RATE CUTS IS OVER. EVERYONE EXPECTS THE US FEDERAL RESERVE TO MOVE THIS WEEK, THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WILL IT GO?

Sep 09, 2024
The comfort blanket of lower interest rates

STOCKS ARE DOWN ON UNDERWHELMING US ECONOMIC NUMBERS, BUT THE CENTRAL BANK IS LIKELY TO RIDE TO THE RESCUE.

Aug 12, 2024
Sudden market jolt gives way to tentative calm

MARKETS STARTED WILD AS RECESSION FEARS ROSE, YET BECAME MORE ORDERLY AS LAST WEEK PROGRESSED. WILL THE CALM REMAIN?

Aug 05, 2024
A seismograph for us economic tremors

STOCK MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD ARE BEING ROCKED AS INVESTORS TAKE FRIGHT ABOUT WHETHER AMERICA IS HEADED FOR RECESSION IN THE COMING MONTHS. YET WHY IS JAPAN THE EPICENTRE?

Jul 29, 2024
Time to cut?

AFTER MONTHS OF WAITING, THERE’S A STRONG CHANCE THAT INTEREST RATES MAY FALL IN THE UK THIS WEEK. ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, THE LONGED-FOR CUTS WON’T BE TILL THE AUTUMN, IF MARKETS ARE CORRECT.

Jul 22, 2024
Biden bows out

AFTER WEEKS OF PRESSURE, PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN HAS ABANDONED HIS BID FOR RE-ELECTION. WILL THERE BE A BATTLE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION AT NEXT MONTH’S PARTY CONVENTION IN CHICAGO, OR WILL HIS SUCCESSOR BE CORONATED QUICKLY?

Jul 15, 2024
Is the door opening to us rate cuts?

POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN THE US IS OVERSHADOWING LAST WEEK’S BIG MOVES IN THE BIGGEST US STOCKS, AND WIDESPREAD GAINS FOR SMALLER STOCKS TOO.

Jul 08, 2024
Labour waltzes to victory

SOMETIMES POLLS ARE RIGHT AND SOMETIMES POLLS ARE WRONG. LAST WEEK, WE SAW CLASSIC EXAMPLES OF BOTH.

Jul 01, 2024
The wave

THE RIGHT-WING RASSEMBLEMENT NATIONAL WAS THE BIG WINNER IN THE FIRST ROUND OF FRENCH ELECTIONS, BUT THE MOST CONCLUSIVE VOTE COMES THIS WEEKEND. BEFORE THEN, THE UK VOTES ON ITS OWN PARLIAMENT.

Jun 24, 2024
Political football

FRANCE GOES TO THE POLLS FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF VOTING, THE TWO CANDIDATES FOR THE WHITE HOUSE SPAR AND THE EURO KNOCKOUT PHASE BEGINS.

Jun 17, 2024
Getting ahead of the fed

THE US FEDERAL RESERVE ROWS BACK ON POTENTIAL FOR INTEREST RATE CUTS EVEN AS INFLATION IMPROVES. MEANWHILE, THE FRENCH ELECTION ALSO REVERBERATES THROUGH BOND MARKETS.

Jun 10, 2024
The year of the election heats up

THE YEAR OF THE ELECTION IS ALREADY PROVIDING WARNING SIGNS TO EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED. EVEN WHEN OUTCOMES AREN’T A HUGE SURPRISE, PAINFUL (IF TEMPORARY) PITFALLS MAY LIE AHEAD).

Jun 03, 2024
The pathetic fallacy

UNCOMFORTABLE WEATHER HANGS OVER THE UK AND ITS MARKETS AS EVERYONE WAITS FOR A SIGN OF SUMMER.

May 28, 2024
Snap election, new policies

WITH THE UK HEADING TO THE POLLS SOONER THAN EXPECTED, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES POLICIES THAT RESONATE WITH OLDER VOTERS. MEANWHILE, DISAPPOINTING INFLATION MAY HAVE KIBOSHED A SUMMER RATE CUT.

May 20, 2024
Divergence emerges

US ECONOMIC DATA IS SOFTENING, YET THERE SEEMS A WAY TO GO BEFORE INTEREST RATES START TO FALL. ON THIS SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC IT’S THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE.

May 13, 2024
The cycle of hope

A RUN OF WEAKER DATA IS REKINDLING EXPECTATIONS OF US INTEREST RATE CUTS. THEY’RE MORE LIKELY TO ARRIVE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC, YET EVEN THERE RISKS OF OVEROPTIMISM REMAIN.

May 07, 2024
The federal reserve riddle

FADING STRENGTH IN THE LABOUR MARKET AND SERVICES BUSINESSES HAVE INCREASED HOPES THAT INTEREST RATES CAN STILL BE CUT THIS YEAR. EVERYBODY IS WATCHING THE FED WATCH THE DATA.

Apr 29, 2024
Taking stock of gdp

THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY OVER WHETHER AND WHEN US INTEREST RATES WILL FALL TOOK A TWIST WITH FIRST-QUARTER GDP. MUCH SLOWER GROWTH, OFFSETTING DYNAMICS AND HIGHER INFLATION ARE CREATING A PUZZLE.

Apr 22, 2024
Spending the big bucks

THE MEAN-AVERAGE AMERICAN FAMILY IS WORTH $1 MILLION AFTER YEARS OF SOARING GROWTH, WEALTH AND INCOME. THIS MATTERS FOR INFLATION, FUTURE INTEREST RATES AND THE STRENGTH OF THE DOLLAR.

Apr 15, 2024
Middle-eastern tensions rise further

AN IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACK ON ISRAEL WAS THWARTED OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE MARKETS ARE CALM, RISKS OF ESCALATION LINGER.

Apr 08, 2024
Is the door slamming on early rate cuts?

A BLOWOUT JOBS REPORT IS TIPPING BETS TOWARDS FEWER US INTEREST RATE CUTS THIS YEAR. WHAT HAPPENS IF INFLATION CONTINUES TO BOUNCE HIGHER THIS WEEK?

Apr 02, 2024
This rally is broadening...

A RESILIENT ECONOMY IS GIVING INVESTORS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO MOVE BEYOND THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN AND INTO CORNERS OF THE MARKET THAT HAVE LAGGED. THIS BROADENING TREND IS VERY ENCOURAGING.

Mar 25, 2024
Downward bound

AFTER THE FLURRY OF CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS LAST WEEK, WHAT DID WE LEARN ABOUT WHEN (AND HOW MUCH) THE BIG HITTERS PLAN TO CUT RATES?

Mar 18, 2024
Land of the rising prices

IN A WAVE OF CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS THIS WEEK, ONE OF THEM IS TRULY DIFFERENT. WHILE ALL OTHER DEVELOPED WORLD POLICYMAKERS ARE PONDERING RATE CUTS, ONLY JAPAN IS CONSIDERING RATE HIKES.

Mar 11, 2024
Hazy data

PROBLEMS WITH UK LABOUR SURVEYS ARE MAKING IT HARD TO KNOW THE TRUE RATE OF UNEMPLOYMENT. MEANWHILE, THE CHANCELLOR RELEASES A TAX-CUTTING BUDGET THAT LEAVES THE NEXT GOVERNMENT WITH TOUGH CHOICES.

Mar 04, 2024
Tax cuts or a conservative budget?

THE CHANCELLOR HOPES TO NARROW LABOUR’S YAWNING LEAD IN OPINION POLLS WITH A TAX-CUTTING BUDGET. GIVEAWAYS MAY BE STYMIED  BY A POOR ECONOMY AND HIGHER COSTS OF PUBLIC SERVICES.

Feb 26, 2024
Planning to fail

OBSTRUCTIVE PLANNING LAWS ARE CURTAILING THE SUPPLY OF HOMES IN THE UK, THE REGULATOR SAYS. MEANWHILE, THE QUALITY OF BUILDING IS SLIPPING, SUGGESTING WE’RE WRAPPED UP IN THE WRONG RED TAPE.

Feb 19, 2024
Downcast, but out (spending)

THE UK SLUMPS INTO RECESSION EVEN AS PEOPLE’S SPIRITS AND RETAIL SALES RISE. MEANWHILE, TROUBLE MAY BE BREWING IN AMERICAN INFLATION.

Feb 12, 2024
American stocks pop

THE US S&P 500 STOCK MARKET INDEX BROKE THROUGH 5,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME, HITTING A RECORD HIGH LAST WEEK AS INVESTORS SHRUGGED OFF WORRIES THAT INTEREST RATES MAY NOT FALL AS FAST AS MANY HAD HOPED.

Feb 05, 2024
Don't tread on me

US JOBS STRENGTH PUSHES BACK INTEREST RATE CUT FORECASTS YET FURTHER. MEANWHILE, HIGHER RATES AND CHANGING BUSINESS NEEDS KEEPS SQUEEZING COMMERCIAL PROPERTY.

Jan 29, 2024
The oracle of threadneedle street

NO CHANGE TO MONETARY POLICY IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, BUT INVESTORS WILL BE EAGER FOR ANY CLUE ABOUT THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S THOUGHTS ON INFLATION AND INTEREST RATE CUTS. 

Jan 22, 2024
Shoppers on strike?

UK RETAIL SALES SLUMPED IN DECEMBER WHILE INFLATION WENT IN THE OTHER DIRECTION. IS THE UK NOW IN RECESSION, ALBEIT THE MILDEST OF THE MILD?

Jan 15, 2024
Gimme shelter

HOUSING COSTS MAKE UP A BIG PART OF PEOPLE’S SPENDING, YET THEY CAN OFTEN OBSCURE WHAT’S GOING ON WITH INFLATION. 

Jan 08, 2024
An old-fashioned santa rally

A GRUELLING YEAR FOR INVESTORS ACTUALLY DELIVERED DECENT RETURNS. BUT HOW MUCH OF THAT STRONG PERFORMANCE IS IN ANTICIPATION OF 2024?

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